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tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  November 5, 2012 3:00pm-4:00pm EST

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million back in 2009 when tiger woods did not win the pga championship. >> thanks for watching. "closing bell" is next. hi, happy monday. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo at new york stock exchange. holding pattern ahead of the big presidential election. >> as you might imagine. i'm bill griffeth. remaining cautious ahead of this vote. so far utilities have moving sharply to the downside, so is telecom, in the wake of superstorm sandy. right now, here's how we stand, virtually unchanged. write this number down, maria, 13,90.84. we'll explain the significance of that level of the dow later in the program. right now we're just above that with a gain of four points.
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nasdaq's up 13.5, high of the session suddenly at 2995. apple's doing well today. sold a lot of ipad minis over the weekend. s&p up 1 1/3 at 1415.50. >> market flat ahead of the election, with some groups on the move. >> in today's "closing bell exchange," todd is with us, so is bill, and steve liesman and pisani with us as well. it's expected this market is going to stand and wait to see what the election results are going to be like for tomorrow, right? >> hey, it's human nature. i mean, people have been paralyzed with all these horror stories about fiscal cliffs and the end of the dollar and the end of america. so, when in doubt, do nothing. hide your cash, sit on the sidelines. but i think there's going to be a big plunger effect that could really unleash tidal waves of money as people start to see
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maybe there's some wonderful surprises, some electoral surprises that just aren't popular right now. >> what are you suggesting? >> i don't know. this nose does more than hold this mustache and glasses and i think it might be a electoral surprise for mr. romney. if that's the case -- >> you think romney wins -- >> i do. >> -- that will be a surprise and this market rallies on that win? >> i think the market rallies big. there will be a lot of money in motion. people will be moving on with decision-making. there's trillions of dollars just waiting for confirmation for a new course. >> todd, what do you think's going on right now? what do you think is going to happen tomorrow? >> well, you know, just -- i'm just going off historic returns. when a democrat wins market goes down, average 9.3%. if a republican wins they'll greet the market with buying. and that's usually the day
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after. but as far as next two days, i think we're going to see very similar tape that we've seen today. the good news is, i think we get beyond that uncertainty. the week of election usually shows positive returns overall regardless if it's a democrat or republican that wins. and then we go on to a very favorable seasonal period for the market, the month of november, december. >> of course, triggers all sorts of buying with the holiday. steve liesman, let's put this in perspective. yes, on this monday we have all this uncertainty. once we have the clarity of who's in the white house, that's when the work begins. what are the most pressing issues that will tend to be the market movers when that work begins? is it the fiscal cliff? >> i think so, maria. we trade the uncertainty of the election but we get the certainty of the election for the uncertainty of how the issues are going to be resolved. i think the math ends up being the same for both candidates. the coming fiscal cliff as well
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as deficit levels, and it may be the market rallies on that day but the question becomes how congress breaks up and weather there's any change there. will whoever wins face a divided congress. does grid d.c. lock get much better? you'll have one uncertainty behind you, the election. i think there are many more uncertainties to come. i'm not sure if the math is different if the color of the white house is red or blue. >> how much safe haven buying is a result of what we're buying, mexico, g-20 issues, greeks are hearing about austerity plan, vote on it wednesday. no certainty -- i mean, blah, blah, blashgs back to the issues of whether they can save greece or not. >> all the blah, blah, blah, blahs could built for whe based
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moves in the market. we're at a three-week low. europe is at a two of my month low evidenced bit bund chart. all that can be explained by all the blah, blah, blahs you pointed to. it's difficult for me to stand here and tell you by looking around me, i see something on the boards of the cme which cover the globe's markets giving me a good clue as to election results tomorrow. i will say this. i think there's a lot of combinations of what could happen between the senate, the house and, of course, the white house. and i think some of those combinations could give us a lot of volatility. so, i think many traders down here are going to brace for volatility. >> todd, this assumes to some degree we're going to know the results by wednesday morning. has every reason to believe it will be a little while. this could be a squeaker for a while. something akin to 2000, right? >> yeah, could be 2000 all over again. to that point about volatility
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expectations, one note that we made was look at the option activity in vix options. we just got up to a huge ratio. they're buying more than three calls, betting on volatility to surge sometime before november or december expiration. whatever plays out it seems like investors are taking that cautious, pessimistic stance. to us, it's contrarian. it is penalty up coming into this market. yes, volatility expectation is extremely high. >> what do you want to be exposed to? bill, have you to put capital to work regardless of the environment. what would you be buying today?
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>> oh, boy, a lot of things. energy, materials, pipelines, drillers. i like the market in general. i think that earnings, this little pause this quarter, i think it accelerates going into 13 and 14. the only thing i would not be a buyer of is gold. reminds me of 1980, the election with carter and reagan, blah, blah, all of the same thing. gold went from 880 to 315. i think there's a lot of parables. >> are there feelings gold is not all that inflationary to hold rates as low as they have for a while? >> well, i think that's an interesting question, bill, because the election is obviously tied up with the future of the fed, or the future of the fed is tied up with the election. can you imagine a situation where a romney victory would create less inflation concern and would, perhaps, cause the price of gold to decline.
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on the other hand, it seems as if the market is not all that concerned with inflation when you look at the ten-year note or inflation expectations inside the tips. it's not a huge issue but you can imagine gold being hurt by a romney victory more so than a romney victory. >> we'll leave it there. thank you very much. appreciate it. so many things at stake, bill. you know, steve just mentioned the federal reserve, but you also have to consider the debt, the deficit, health care legislation, the possibility that the new president or president obama names three seats to the supreme court three security justices. a lot at stake. >> an important day tomorrow. hope you can get out and vote, whichever way you're going. right now we're heading toward the close with a ten-point gain. again, remember that level i gave on you the dow, 1390.84. we'll explain the significance coming up. >> stick around, a lot more to come on "closing bell."
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coming up. investing on the elections. are candidate romney's fiscal views the same as a president romney's would be? we get the view from wall street straight ahead. plus, running for home. housing has been the forgotten sector this season with prices actually lower now than when the president took office. we debate where the value of your home is headed after election day, no matter who wins. and could how the stock market finishes today actually determine who wins tomorrow? don't scoff. wait until you see the facts that back that up. that's all ahead on the "closing bell." looking for a better place to put your cash? here's one you may not have thought of -- fidelity. now you don't have to go to a bank to get the things you want from a bank,
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welcome back. president obama and governor mitt romney are almost out of time to sway voters. tomorrow is the only poll that
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matters. >> yes, it is, maria. our chief washington correspondent and birthday boy, john harwood is following the candidates' last-minute moves. happy birthday. >> thank you, guys. it is the only poll that matters tomorrow but we have a lot of other polls, which don't matter, which are giving us signals of where the candidates are and why they're going to those states. crisscrossing the battlegrounds, ohio, wisconsin, colorado, the candidates are all there. if you look at our nbc/wall street poll, 47-48 obama. look at the battle of the swing states, of the nine swing states, only in two does mitt romney have a lead in the real clear politics average of polls. that's north carolina and florida. all the others, iowa, colorado, new hampshire, ohio, the rest of that set of battle ground states are all leading for obama. now, many of them are close, but if mitt romney only carries florida and north carolina among
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those battleground states, he's only 235 electoral votes. what he has to do is put together in this final sprint victories in states like virginia, like in ohio, like wisconsin, like colorado. that's the way he could get to 270 electoral votes. we'll see whether the two candidates turn out machines produce the way they have hoped they will. and i talked to someone in the romney campaign today who said the polls have simply not captured the republican intensity. we'll find out tomorrow whether that intensity is actually superior to the democrats. >>. >> thank you. candidates battling it out into the final hour, for sure. what is wall street expecting to see from president romney versus candidate romney? will he be harder on china? a lot of questions. >> mike satolli from yahoo! finance says no. he sees it more complicated. and they say stocks could take a hit the second half next year if
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romney delivers on his promise to cut government spending. todd, have you to remember a lot of that has to do with the makeup of congress as well following the election. i mean, they are the ones that you have to get the spending plans through. and we all know how dysfunctional congress has been. >> that's right, bill. however, he has been very -- candidate romney has been very vocal about the fact that he wants to cut government spending. as you know, 20% of gross domestic product comes from government spending. so, therefore, where is the lift going to come from. have you an economy that's not organic. i think we'll have a big bump -- i think the bulls will be running if romney wins but i think the second half of next year, due to earnings pressure, you'll see that in valuations for the stock market. it could be a rough second half next year. >> will we get earnings pressure regardless, just given the fiscal cliff issues? where we are right now a lot of economists expecting a recession
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in 20 13 because we haven't addressed these important issues. mike? >> potentially. obviously, that is the reason it's going to be issue one on wednesday, assume swreg a winner from either side. yeah, i do think that's an issue. how much of a drag? i think that's where, by the way, this episode differs from, say, the y2k analogy, everything was great, fine, or we had c cataclism. we have to figure if that's going to be criming to an economy that seems like it's held up okay on the consumer side, housing coming back and jobs better than a few months ago. those are the crosscurrents we'll see no matter who's there. >> mike, what about the issue of china. romney talks tough on china right now but you think if he got to the white house, it would be a different situation. >> the you come out guns blazing on china, make them pay fair,
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currency manipulator. once you're there, a little more nuanced approach always seems to make more sense. there's obviously multiple fronts in which you want to engage with china. i feel the currency side, by the way, china's currency has been strengthening against the dollar. this isn't issue number one for the u.s. economic recovery has been unsatisfying. that's one area where wall street is hoping that's the way it would go under a romney president and probably will go that way. >> what about taxes? let's go through the two plans on taxes. this is one of the more important yishdz for wall street, whether it's capital gains taxes, dividend taxes, ordinary income. let's define each side here. todd? >> well, look, romney's been very -- he wants a tax-friendly environment, maria. he's been vocal about that. i mean, that's just the culture of the gop. but then these guys are the odd couple. you have president obama who clearly is talking about higher taxes for the upper class and also thinking, have you to look at those other taxes, health care taxes, for example, that will impact the middle class.
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you have a romney presidency, you can only assume we have will have a cut in taxes but we need to resolve this fiscal cliff issue. it's not just resolving the fiscal cliff, it's also a long-term plan up. don't want to have to go through this every 12 months, talk about the debt ceiling and everything else. we want romney -- this is what wall street wants, something for the long term we know will be a fiscally fit future for the country. that will help wall street, will help cuts. >> we will see tax reform under romney. >> i go back to my premise, what about the makeup of congress and whether they become a roadblock for any plan, whether it's romney or obama, for tax reform or fiscal policy, mike signal. >> that's always the question. i do wonder if we've seen -- maybe this is wishful thinking, but the peak of political polarization? in other words, do we have enough settled questions that we need some long-term structural plan, that that's the politically winning point. we went through the trauma of
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the debt ceiling debate. got downgraded. maybe there's enough aversion for going through something like that. i don't know the makeup of congress is going to matter a lot. i think when wall street looks at romney's tax proposals and spending proposals, there's enough room to say, once we're at the negotiating table we can figure out how it will fall way in the details. tax cuts, revenue neutral, potentially down the road, that to me is not necessarily going to make the bond market all that happy if, in fact, you don't see the spending side come down. those are the questions the markets are going to be wanting to find out about. >> for sure. gentlemen, thank you very much. good conversation. don't forget, cnbc will have full coverage of the presidential election beginning tomorrow at 5 p.m. eastern with a special edition of "squawk box" at 5 p.m. i'll be anchoring with carl quintanilla at 7 p.m. when the first polls close,
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we'll be with you when we learn the winner in the white house. all evening tomorrow night beginning at 7 p.m. you know, certain important swing states close at 7:00, 8:00, 8:30, so one by one we'll be going through the swing states and all the rest. >> the emphasis being on all evening. goikts a long night. >> yeah, possibly 2 a.m. evening. me meanwhile, 40 minutes before the closing bell sounds. we have a number of sectors on the move. >> we've heard it may be bullish for bonds if obama wins and stocks are better if romney wins, but is that the case? >> do you think the market will get clarity tomorrow night? why there's such a growing kempb the final result could drag it out for weeks or more. that would be a night mayor. >> we don't want that. there are a lot of warning lights
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welcome back. 35 minutes left in the trading session. time for a quick market stat check on the dow. if you're just joining us, industrial average trading in narrow 66-point range today. a wait and see day ahead of tomorrow. the dow is up nine-plus points.
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it was down 55 at that low set on the open this morning. utilities, telecom, the worst performing sectors. terlsz notch gains. most could be considered a sandy effect. the s&p 500 utilities index dropping to its lowest level since early june in the wake of superstorm sandy. >> time for talking numbers, forget obama versus romney. some say it breaks down to bonds versus stocks because the president's policies may be good for bonds and mitt romney's policies would benefit equities. on the technical side, abigail doolittle and miller bookbar. peter, you're one of the smartest guys out there. i love your research. >> i think the bond market rally has run it's course. even if obama wins, i don't see much upside. if romney wins because of the
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optimism that any growth in the economy that would engender, it would be negative for bonds. for me, the trade is very asymmetrical with very little upside in bonds and a lot more downside if -- either way, depending on who wins. >> even if romney wins, you think there's not a lot of upside for stocks? >> well, for stocks i think we're going to get an emotional knee-jerk bounce november, december. i think 2013 is going to be a challenge for no matter who wins. but i think we're going to get a rally, 5%, 10%, if romney wins. on the flipside, if obama wins, a lot of people will be disappointed and they'll have to deal with the stark reality of taxes going higher in 2013 across the board in a very fragile economy. i see a lot of downside the next few months if obama wins. again, this is separate from 2013. >> understood. abigail, let's look at the charts. >> technically i have to take the other side of peter. the reason being, when we look at the s&p 500, we see that it
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is reversing its intermediate term uptrend. and this is a bearish event. it's doing so on a complex head and shoulders, three heads in there. each of these show different areas of selling pressure. this pattern confirms right around 1397, target of 1319, 7% decline. the reason to believe this is going to occur, the s&p 500 is likely to make that move down, it's already happening in the nasdaq composite. that chart is already on its way down, same pattern. all in from the peak. this september i think we're looking at a 10% decline. i think the election is one piece of the puzzle in the risk-on/risk-on trade. stocks will be a little weaker. i think bonds might outperform. if we look at a long-term chart of the ten-year yield, we see a long-term downtrend. we also see a symmetrical t
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triangle. we've seen a few of these. this one here, target 1%. with yield trading inverse to price, it seems likely we may see the bond market rally just a little more. not crazy. maybe 3% to 5% to the upside. >> regardless of who wins? >> i think so. i think we're looking at the election, europe, the fiscal cliff, q4. this is just one piece of the puzzle. maybe a little pop from the election but near-term in the -- through the end of the year, stocks down. i think bonds we will see up. >> we'll be watching that. thank you so much. peter, good to see you. >> we want to take a moment to update everybody on the -- on a recent tragedy inside our cnbc family. tyler mathisen, my colleague, certainly an anchor and vice president here at cnbc. he's back at global headquarters with details. >> less than two weeks ago one of cnbc's own, kevin krim, head of digital operations and his
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family were the victims of incomprehensive crime. in new york city the family held a private memorial service for their two young children who died on october 25th. many of you have reached out to the family and to cnbc to express your condolences. we deeply appreciate your thoughtfulness. many of you asked how you could help. a fund has been established in lulu and leo's names to honor their love of arts and sciences. the proceeds will go to support educational art and science programs for youth. if you would like to contribute, you can logon to our hearts and prayers remain with the krim family. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 this morning, i'm going to trade in hong kong. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 after that, it's on to germany. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 then tonight, i'm trading 9500 miles away in japan.
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voteers head to the polls in swing states tomorrow, we're wondering whether the value of their home could affect their
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decision. diana has been on that story. it's a case where home values in many states are lower than they were four years ago, since the last election, so you have to wonder whether that will be become a factor in the election tomorrow, right? >> well, bill, it absolutely could. i mean, after all, your home is your single largest investment for most people, that is. so, what we to want look today is where home prices are now versus when president obama took office. according to the s&p case-shiller home price index, in the ten largest u.s. housing market, prices are down 2.4% from january 200 through august of 2012. that's seasonally adjusted. prices are down 3.7% for the top 20 cities. remember, prices did go up briefly during the obama administration's home buyer tax credit only to fall again before bottoming. home prices nationally are still down nearly 30% from their inflated peak in 2006. of course, there are wide disparities, state to state,
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locals. in d.c., home prices up 13% from when obama took office. up 9% in denver. up 14% in san francisco. in las vegas, remember, nevada, a crucial state here, they're still down nearly 24%. in miami, florida, down nearly 6%. and in chicago, down 10%. the question is historically has a president ever won a second term with falling home prices. the median price of a u.s. home never actually fell before the end of 2006 nationally. sure, there were local and regional home price crashes but never on a national level. now, if you compare october 2012, which is the last month of data we have from the realtors, to october 2008, the median home price nationally, the median, is down 1.4%. but a lot of that has to do with what's selling today, which is a lot of low priced foreclosures and short sales. we have more on this the blog
3:34 pm >> thank you so much. where do housing experts think home prices will be in four years? does it matter who wins as to which way they go? >> chiming in, david of mortgage banking solutions. christopher thornburg of beacon economics and diana will stick around as well. christopher, you don't think it matters who wins the white house really as it pertains to the future of home prices here in this country. why? >> the big dpee klein in prices was mainly, a, we had excess supply, b, prices were pushed up that were unsustainable on a long-term. affordability is best it's been in years. of course, the other issue, supply is also turning in the right direction. if you look at the nar numbers, 5 1/2 month supply. for some parts of the market, here in southern california, the markets are even tighter than that. you add it up and it's pretty clear, things are going to start
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moving forward, or better said, they're going to continue to move forward from the gains we've seen over the course of the last six months or so. >> so, david, how would you -- how would you describe the market, then? has it become now the issue of getting a mortgage that seems to be one of the sticking points, or is it still a lot of supply on the market? because even though a lot of people feel we've seen the worse, we're just bumping along the bottom with housing. what is it going to take to get this needle moving? >> it's both. supply and mortgage products. we've had some of the most prestriktive products we've had in years. it's relative. it's really returning back to where it was as far as mortgage products were concerned. we're turning back to the products we used to have when we had a healthy economy but we don't have products that really fuel the excess growth. a lot of people feel we need that, given the inventory that's out there. i agree with chris. i don't think it's going to matter who goes into the white house as it relates to the future of housing prices because we're on a trajectory. investors are coming in and snatching up these prices.
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i'm meeting with investors across the country and they say, we only wish we had gotten in sooner because of where things are at. they're seeing things forming a firm bottom and they're wishing they had bought more but it's investo investors. >> and along those lines, diana, rentals are a huge part of this economy right now in the housing market, aren't they? >> they are. rents are actually going up, despite the fact that we have home prices going down and housing affordability is so much better. one key point here is consumer confidence. it's a huge part of the housing market and it's a huge part of this election. and consumer confidence in housing is on the rise, despite the fact that some home prices still have not recovered even close to where they were before. remember, of course, we were from an inflated rate. we see consumer confidence rising in the housing market, fannie mae put out a survey showing people expected their home prices to rise, many more than ever before. just that feeling of confidence. also fewer people in a negative equity position is fueling that
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sentiment in housing. it's also going to make people feel better about their own economic worth. again, have you that mortgage problem, as you said. but going forward, people do seem more confident. >> the standards are tougher, is that the mortgage problem you're talking about? >> absolutely. standards are very tough. they may get tougher as we look at new regulations coming down from dodd/frank in 2013. there's a lot of concern. we have great low rates but not everyone can get them. >> we sit with record low mortgage rates. they've been there a while. eventually they have to go up. you know, human nature being what it is, don't you think that once they do start to rise, that's when more people may come back to this market. they don't to want miss a bottom, do they? >> yeah, absolutely. you're right. eventually rates will have to drift up slowly. i don't think they'll go up much. keep in mind, we know over the last few years millions of households have been foreclose closed on. a federal reserve study showed it takes two to three years for
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a house that's foreclosed on to get back into owner/occupied housing. what that means is when that investor push starts to wear out, you'll have some households foreclose used on two, three years ago move back into the market and that should keept momentum up over the next three, four years. >> thanks. we appreciate it. in the final stretch fort day, ahead of the election tomorrow. dow is up ten points. nasdaq, so far fractional moves top upside. technology one of the better performers. nas nasdaq up 14. our next guest says a fiscal cliff deal will be reached by the end of the year, regardless of who winds the presidency. after the bell, some man people call the banker, robert wolf weighs in on goldman sachs' call that dividend and capital gains will rise. >> make cnbc your election headquarters. we have full results starting
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right here at 5 p.m. eastern time tomorrow. first, before we go to break, the dividend. which company's stock with earnings out tomorrow morning has risen the most? cvs caremark, directv or discovery communications? the dividend pays off after the break. in america today we're running out of a vital resource we need to compete on the global stage. what we need are people prepared for the careers of our new economy. by 2025 we could have 20 million jobs
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just before the break as part of "the dividend" we asked which company's stock with earnings out tomorrow morning has risen the most this year? now the payoff. discovery communications, which has climbed more than 40% year to date. welcome back. technology stocks among the few bright spots on technology today. >> the nasdaq composite picking up steam in the last one hour, outperforming major indices.
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apple to thank for most of that. remember, the stock has lost about 10% over the past month. even outside of tech, we're seeing some big moves in shares of tesla, the electric carmaker, even though it reported a third quarter loss. it was the bullish comments made by tesla management around its model s sedan production and overall forecast for 2012 getting the street excited. the stock up nearly 9%. back to you. >> thank you very much. the markets continue to be laser focused on the elections, as are we all. andres garcia says no matter who wins the white house, he sees a bipartisan deal on the deficit coming by year end. may it ever be so, sir. he feels investors need to ride out the current storm of uncertainty. >> is he right or too optimistic? he joins us along with bob
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pisani. andres, you're more optimistic about the fiscal cliff regardless of who gets into the white house? >> do i. i think you have to put yourself in their shoes and one thing politicians not only care about is gnot just getting elected bu getting re-elected. president obama and mitt romney have in common they don't want to tax more than. whoever gets elected has an incentive to try to make a deal by december to allow at least, or punt for next year some bigger issues down the road. >> we haven't had a budget for four years. we went through the debt crisis in august of last year. i'm not going to state the obvious. this congress can't get along. >> and obama said he's ready to veto any legislation on the table that says taxes will go down for the highest earners. >> political posturing, which is very important right before elections. you mentioned something that's interesting. last year this just happened for
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the congress, which actually makes the markets even more hypersensitive to what's happening in the white house and in the congress. the congress is very aware of this. by the way, they need to get re-elected in two years, and they know that. >> meantime, look at this, a rally, david darst, a rally. >> personal income, profits and industrial production, the three ps, production, profits and personal income. they'll call the tune. yes, you've had the house prices, the consumer confidence, the retail sales. they've been good. a nice flow. yes, you've had the quantitative easing bill, but you have to watch profits. we see them continuing to decelerate. four out of five, so far, 400 companies of the 500 have reported. four out of five of them have reported -- been decreasing, lower guidance. we see a continued slowdown into the fourth quarter. and our adam parker is sticking with his decline of next year versus a consensus of up 11%. industrial production's not
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there. and jobs, they've been anemic. 157,000 per month this year. 153,000 a month last year. you really want gate, the jobs times hours worked times the weekly wage, and that number has basically risen only 0.1%. the income is not there. the production is not there. we to want see those two come through to feel more bullish. >> bob pisani, what about that, what can you tell us in terms of what the expectations are out there for earnings in 2013? >> well, earnings are going to be a little tougher in 2013. i personally think they have troughed in the third and fourth quarter. i seem to be in a minority on this. let me make a point about andres because i just did a trader talk note on the fiscal cliff. there are a lot of people surprisingly there's going to be a resolution as andres was saying. both people of ideological persuasions think neither party
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will risk a recession to prove a ideological point. the most likely trend right now is the bush tax cuts will be extended through 2013. some others might be problematic with part of the fiscal cliff. that's the most likely path. the one thing nobody wants, no matter who you're voting for s some kind of tie. some kind of thing like happened in 2000 where we go for six weeks before we know what's going on. remember that? >> yeah. >> hanging chads, remember that? >> that would be a nightmare. >> the market dropped 10%. i was down here that, you were, too. that's a horrible time. >> for global markets, u.s. versus the rest of the world, how do you want to be diversified allocation? >> we're united states. remember china's growth is no longer going to be 10%. they're reaccelerating their growth over the last couple of quarters but we think it's a question of 7% to 8%.
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emerging markets, driven by china, will look different. we favor developed markets, especially the u.s., which happens to be the best house in a crummy neighborhood, if you will, of the global economy. >> defensive stocks, health care, consumer staples and health care. >> global guerrillas, i like that. >> thank you for joining us. heading to the close with a bit of a rally. dow up 38 points, the high of the session. >> what happens in wall street in the two months leading up to election day is historically one of the most accurate predictors who gets elected president? >> remember that number, 1390.84, you'll find out why that's significant coming up. why someone here says the superstorm sandy devastation increasing consumer fraud. herb greenberg saw this coming from the very first forecast.
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how can you weed out legitimate claims from excuses?
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welcome back. election day is almost upon us. if you follow this market indicator that predicts the winner, 90% of the time it's really, really -- >> as with every other indicator out there. this is from an old friend, jik stack in whitefish, montana, he's done the research. he finds if the dow is up from labor day to election day, then the incumbent 90% of the time in the last 100 years has retained power. if the dow has been down over that period of time, the challenger is likely to take the white house. now, if you look at the chart, this is a chart taking us back to labor day, it is very close. for the period since labor day, le dow has turned positive. the friday before labor day it closed at 130184.
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>> fractional move. where will it go after tomorrow? it's amazing. you haven't really incorporated in there the fiscal cliff, the economy, the earning slowdown in the third quarter. i understand none of these things are scientific -- >> and whether this is causation or coincident, i don't know. i respected the work jim stack does very much. he's done a lot of great work over years -- >> but, bill, 90% of the time. >> i know. this is like the super bowl indicator for some people. whether it matters or not. i go along -- i agree with you on peter, his take is you will get a pop if romney wins, but that then it goes down after that. it's what happened with ronald reagan when he won in 1980. a change in office. you had a republican coming in. pro growth. and the stock market took off but then by the end of the year, it was back to where it had begun after election. >> i putting the stock market aside, i think everybody just wants to see business loosen up. money on balance sheets going to
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work in terms of hiring folks. >> get the cash to work. >> get the cash to work. and no indicator about that. >> that's a good point. >> that's what we really need to see in this economy to move again. >> just go out and vote. >> coming back with the closing countdown after this short break. also, will dividend stocks take a hit if president wins re-election? one of president's biggest backers, robert wolf will be joining maria. >> tune in tomorrow night for cnbc's coverage of the presidential election. it all begins at 5 p.m. with a special edition of "squawk box." then i'll be anchoring along with carl quintanilla from 7 p.m. until we learn who the winner of the white house will be. we're expecting midnight, 2 a.m., all night live coverage. don't miss it. hope you'll join us. ... what should we invest in? maybe new buildings? what about updated equipment? they can help, but recent research shows... ... nothing transforms schools like investing
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so he can worry about other things, like what the market is doing and being ready, no matter what happens, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense, from td ameritrade. 2 1/2 minutes left. let's look at the markets the day before the election. a brit of a rally, off the high right now. dow is up 20 points, 13,114. going back to jim's report, if
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you go back, the dow is higher, incumbent stays in office. and if it is lower, then there's a change of power. are we going to look at the three-month chart? there we are. we are virtually unchanged. slight gain. dollar index, they've been rushing to the dollar. part of that is greece, part is what's going on in the united states. that's a two-month high for dollar against the euro. yield on the ten-year note is at a three-week low. we're at 168. as for sectors, i said there's still a sandy effect going to, energy and materials and technology and consumer discretionary doing very well. the second page very quickly. utilities, telecom, those sectors hit by the devastation of sandy are the ones that have been suffering the most at this point. peter costa, do we suddenly get a logjam lifted once we have results of the election out of the way? we're in a wait and see mode right now. >> you know, you go back in time and you look at other elections.
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there wasn't a log jam lifted from any of the other elections. we don't really have a consensus -- when you're going through an election there's always a clear favorite. i don't think either candidate -- whoever wins, i don't think it's going to make that much difference as far as the economy. i think the economy makes the economy move, not the president. >> and the little book "still saves your assets," i'm sure you can get it on amazon. >> it's hard to read it in the candlelight at my house. >> you are concerned about job growth and earnings growth. >> jobs growth, earnings growth. i think the reaction on the election -- between the election and year-end, the market has only -- it's up half the time, down half the time. it's inconclusive. when it's been a tight race, when the incumbent winsz, the market is up 2%. when the challenger wins, up 6%. there you are. just go out and vote. thanks, guys. th


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